Analysis of historical and current patterns and drivers of distribution and movements of large herbivores in the Limpopo National Park

Abstract

The distribution, abundance, and movements of species are crucial in spatial ecology and large herbivores (LH) communities‟ management in human-dominated landscapes because LH populations in these environments are critically low and some species undergoing endangered. The research aimed to contribute towards a better understanding of the historical and current distribution and movement patterns of LH in the Limpopo National Park (LNP), thereby creating a basis and providing evidence for the management and further development of the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Park (GLTP). I combined historical and current LH occurrence data (1500-2021) based on a systematic literature search, census reports, online databases, dung count transects, and camera trap surveys to reconstruct the historical distribution and movement patterns of LH species using ArcGIS 10.8.1 in five different periods: (i) prehistoric period (around 1500), (ii) peak of the colonial period (1800-1975), (iii) post-colonial/civil war period (1976-2001), (iv) post- proclamation of GLTP (2002-2018), and (v) current period (2019-2021). I assessed the distribution patterns and the relative abundance of reintroduced LH (2019-2021) through camera traps in five habitat types and the wildlife reintroduced and not-reintroduced areas. I used aerial censuses (2001-2018), camera trap surveys, and dung count transects (2019- 2021) to assess how ecological and anthropogenic factors influence the distribution of LH in 5 km x 5 km grid cells through a generalized linear model (GLM). I found a dramatic collapse of LH populations between the peak of the colonial and the post-colonial periods (1800-2001), followed by a slight recovery from the post-proclamation of GLTP to the current period (2002-2021). Elephants, buffalos, and zebra appear to recover better than giraffes, eland, blue wildebeest, and white rhinos. There were LH movements in the past, which ceased in the civil war period. Currently, there is evidence of the re-establishment of wildlife movements in the LNP. The distribution and abundance of LH were associated with habitat types rather than distance to the reintroduction site. Habitat types and rainfall were the most influential factors, while cattle grazing areas were the worst factors associated with the prevalence of LH. Some species tended to avoid human settlements, while others seem attracted to human settlements. Overall, the LH distribution and movement patterns decreased over time, and currently, the restoration is in an early and vulnerable state. These findings suggest connectivity between different habitats within the LNP despite intense human presence in the core area and buffer zone. Therefore, furtherefforts are necessary to strengthen the slow recovery of LH in the LNP. The findings highlight the need for further research on connectivity in the larger GLTP through GPS tracking of LH species. It would also allow investigating/quantifying the potential risk of human-wildlife conflict at finer spatial scales to improve future management in the LNP and GLTP.