Effects of climate variability on rice production and farmers’ resilience in Liberia

Abstract

Climate variability poses major challenges to agriculture worldwide amid increasing population growth and rising food demand. In Liberia, rice is a staple crop, however, its production remains low and highly vulnerable to changing climate conditions. This study evaluates the impact of climate variability on rice production while identifying suitable areas for sustainable rice cultivation in Liberia. Rice production and yield data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) database, while climate variables (temperature and precipitation) were sourced from ERA5 Agrometeorological Indicators and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), for the period of 1990–2023. Climate trends and relationships with rice production were examined using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Spearman’s rank correlation, while Multiple Linear Regression was applied to estimate climate impacts on rice productivity. In addition, a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision- Making approach using the Analytic Hierarchy Process was employed to map rice suitability. Results indicate that mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures increased by 0.57 °C, 0.55 °C, and 0.55 °C, with a strong variability in precipitation, reaching 180.31 mm. Production observed a total increase of 76,200 tons, while yield remained relative stable at 1.2 tone/hectare. Regression results revealed a significant negative impact of minimum temperature (p = 0.015) on rice production and a positive effect of precipitation on yield (p = 0.036). Suitability analysis shows that 5.57% of Liberia is highly suitable, 44.57% suitable, 42.41% moderately suitable, and 7.45% unsuitable for rice cultivation, with soil pH, slope, and soil texture identified as key limiting factors. Highly suitable areas are found in the central, northern, and southeastern counties, including Lofa, Bong, Nimba, Gbarpolu, Grand Gedeh, and River Gee. Overall, the findings highlight the sensitivity of rice production to climate variability and demonstrate significant potential for expanding rice cultivation through strategic land-use planning, improved technologies, and institutional support to strengthen farmer resilience and national food security