Análise dos efeitos dos gastos públicos no crescimento económico de Moçambique: um estudo econométrico (2002-2016)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of Public Spending on economic growth of Mozambique from 2002 to 2016. To this end, we tried to measure econometrically the main variables that influence the Mozambican public spending. To estimate the determinants of Public Expenditure in Mozambique was estimated an econometric model using the method of ordinary least squares incorporating the explanatory variables of the model.Overall, they were used in the research and econometric statistical techniques that led to the estimation of econometric models in order to assess the effects of public spending for the Mozambican economy. Based on this statistical and econometric exercise it was possible to obtain the following conclusions:The variable costs of goods and services showed a higher average relative error occurs due to the fact that they have different characteristics. Investment spending in economic and social areas already showed a difference in the much smaller error. Another important conclusion was thatcointegration of test resultsEngle and Grangerbased on the Dickey-Fuller,which allows to reject the null hypothesis of non-stationarity of waste. This result indicates that the variables included in the model are cointegrated, ie, have a long-run equilibrium relationship, leading to the conclusion that there is a cointegration vector in the model under consideration.And finally, (iv) in the short term, when all variables of public spending are analyzed, they present positive and statistically significant signs that positively affect economic growth.