Abstract:
Malawi’s Affordable Inputs Programme (AIP) aims to enhance smallholder productivity and food
security by providing subsidized access to fertilizer and improved seeds, thereby reducing poverty
among farming households. Despite its national importance, evidence on its effectiveness in
reducing household food poverty remains mixed due to persistent concerns about targeting
accuracy, inclusivity, and household vulnerability to climatic shocks. Using nationally
representative data of 7,804 agricultural households from the Fifth Integrated Household Survey
(IHS5), we apply the control function (CF) approach to address endogeneity in subsidy
participation and estimate the programme’s causal impact on food poverty. Descriptive results
show that AIP beneficiaries are more likely to be female-headed, widowed, and rural households,
and tend to have relatively greater access to extension services, land, and livestock assets, with
patterns indicating that only the complete AIP package is associated with noticeable improvements
in poverty outcomes. The control function estimates reveal that each additional coupon reduces
the probability of being food poor by 16.3 percent and lowers the food poverty gap by 6.1 percent,
suggesting meaningful but moderate improvements in household food welfare. In addition, factors
such as higher education, employment, access to credit, business ownership, livestock holdings,
and urban residence significantly improve household welfare. Overall, the study highlights the
need to strengthen targeting by also considering the educated and the youth, and complement the
AIP with credit access, education, and climate-resilient support to maximize its contribution to
sustainable food security in Malawi
