Fertility and its proximate determinats in Mozambique: an analysis of levels, trends, differentials and regional variation

Abstract

Despite increasing demographic research on sub-saharan Africa in the lasr desades, fertility behavior in Mozambique has remained poorly documented. This reseach examines fertility levels , trends and differentils in Mozambique by region and province. Each of the main proximate determinants of fertility(nupiality, postpartum infercundability, enfertility and conctraception)is separately examined and the effects of socio-economic and cultural factors are assessed using bivariate and multivariate approches. The study uses data fron the 1980 and 1997 censuses, the 1997 demographic and heath survey and qualitative data collected through focus group discissions, in depth interviews, informal conversations and participant observation. Indirect estimation offertility levels shows an apparent decline of fertility from 7 children per womam in 1980 to 6 children per woman in 1997 , but a more rigorous examination, using more robust methods , suggests no clear evidence of a change towards lower fertility at the national level.however, the study shows substantial regional differences, with fertility decline being well estabilished since the early 1980s in the most prosperous Southern Region, while it has barely started in Northern and Central Regions. The analysis of regional and provincial differences in fertility identifies uneven socio-economic development as the main explanatory factor. The multivariate analysis suggests that for total fertility, the differentials are mainly explained by socio-economic devlopment factors ( education, urban-rural residence and employment status), while for the individual proximate determinants, ethnicity also has an important effect, particularly in explaining the differentials in nuptiality patterns, the level of pathological infertility and the duration of postpartum infecundability. The decomposition of the total fertility rare into its main proximate determinants shows that postpartum infecundability has the strongest fertility reducing effect while contraceptive use has the weakest. The study also considers the possibility of a slow decline of fertility at the national level and in Central and Northern Regions in the near future , with regional differences in fertility likely to increase owing to a faster fertility decline in the Southern Region where fertility decline is already under way. Some policy implications are also discussed.